Taliban was formed as a product of the cold war to fight the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 where Islamic Mujahideen fighters engaged in a war with soviet forces in which 90000 Afghans including Mohammed Omar were trined by Pakistan’s Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) during the 1980’s. The west & NATO helped the Taliban to fight the soviet takeover of Afghanistan.
But due to sudden initiation of civil war which lasted from 1992-1996, working governments, departments, police units, system of justice & accountability did not have the time to form by the newly created Islamic state of Afghanistan. So in short, a state of anarchy had started well before 9/11 happened.
9/11 was the turning point to this never ending war which started in 2001. 9/11 was the biggest man-made disaster in the US in which over 3000 American citizens had died. This attack was clearly taken ownership by Al-Qaeeda, a dreaded terrorist organization which had its roots in Afghanistan and was lead by Osama Bin Laden. US waged a war against terror and rained havoc in Afghanistan and owing to this reason, Taliban started supported Al-Qaeeda against the US led operations.
Let’s come back to 2019. It’s been 18 yrs since the US led war on terror in Afghanistan was launched and in no way we could say that it has achieved its objective to eradicate terror as Al-Qaeeda is still active in its circles and creating unrest. US has been sending millions of troops to Afghanistan to maintain order, peace & tranquility in the region. It is spending millions of dollars worth Men & Money to ensure the regional stability in Afghanistan.
Now US & Taliban are in process of brokering a peace deal and on 12th August 2019, the eighth round of negotiations between US & Taliban at Doha, which is the capital of Qatar. Its being indicated that a peace agreement is being finalized and a formal announcement will be made in the coming weeks.
Following the conclusion of the talks both the sides both sides will consult their respective leaderships on the next steps. This has been in the process since last year and its focused on the following four key issues:
- A Taliban Guarantee that it will not allow foreign armed groups & fighters to use Afghanistan as a launch pad to conduct attacks outside the country.
- The Complete withdrawal of US & NATO forces.
- An Intra- Afghan dialogue.
- A Permanent cease-fire.
A Taliban representative who is a part of the negotiating team said that the peace agreement was near & will be finalized & will be announced very shortly. US secretary of state Mike Pompeo said during a trip to Afghanistan’s Capital Kabul, in June that the US was close to wrapping up the draft agreement with the Taliban on counter terrorism. He hoped to get the peace agreement by September 1st.
But let’s understand the flipside; Afghanistan shares a very troublesome border with Pakistan which is a 100% rogue state. Also the memories are fresh about the emergence of ISIS in Iraq & Syria. This happened right after the US invasion of Iraq and after overthrowing Saddam Hussein and a hasty power transfer after that. This created a leadership vacuum in the county & the fringe group formed the Islamic Caliphate notoriously known as ISIS. Former US president Barrack Obama had compared these deadly forces to be equal to none other than street fighters. But we all very well know how deadly these forces were and the kind of systematic havoc they created.
US forces action in Afghanistan is a long drawn war and it’s a kind of a situation which has generated little to no results on ground. Taliban cannot be considered a trustworthy ally and since the country being unstable now it can lead to a situation where it could give birth to a bigger monster which could create a very unstable world order viz-a-viz ISIS 2.0 or Super ISIS. Also Pakistan is a nuclear state and if these rebels could manage to get the Nukes from them the situation would be very volatile and could disturb the regional balance and the world order & could spell doomsday to its neighbors.
We clearly understand that US wants to end this war and retreat the troops back to home and in short would gain by spending money on lands away from home, but they need to understand that such a move now could spell disaster of the nth order as the power vacuum which will be created henceforth will lead to a force which will be powerful & prepared and will overshadow other terror organizations hands down and such a situation now spells disaster to regional security & world order.
Also we need to understand that Pakistan which is the currently the world’s most unstable after North Korea has around 250 nuclear war heads in its arsenal which are very loosely held. Also its Forex reserves have depleted and its current value is around $4Bn and this is the same value in which a country like Greece became bankrupt. Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan is currently busy rationing bread and other essential commodities which its subjects need at the moment and in short in a very sorry state of affairs. Hence with this kind of poverty levels, failed economy, depleting foreign exchange reserves and the tactical nuclear arsenal its disposal, we very well need to understand that it’s a ticking timebomb.
Now if you have to decentralize and create a peaceful world order we have to ensure that along with the peace treaty with Taliban we should create a way to denuclearize Pakistan also. So looking further in the Pakistani Nuclear arsenal, they have 2 kinds of Nuclear weapons, one of them is tactical nuclear weapons which Pakistan possesses and can have an impact in range up-to 5-10 kms. This can be really catastrophic as any use of such weapons could have a possibility of a full-fledged war with heavy collateral damage. Now what has really added to the fear is that, India’s Defense Minister Rajnath Singh in India’s national interest and security has recently made it clear that India will revoke its “No First Use Policy” for nuclear confrontation in event of a war. Also India has successfully tested a hydrogen bomb and India is one of the 5 countries after US, Russia, China, and France which has the capability to launch nuclear weapons by land, air & sea also known as a nuclear triad. So a loosely held tactical nuclear weapon compounded by a Bankruptcy situation in Pakistan and India clearly revoking its “No First Use Policy” in event of a war makes it a highly volatile Trio. So it is very much imperative for the world to look at a possible peace treaty with Taliban and simultaneously achieving a full de-nuclearization of Pakistan by ensuring full closure of its weapons building capability and shutting down its nuclear reactors for good. There should be some incentives and packages worked out for Pakistan which will clearly be a morale builder. Let’s not forget that there are around 40000 Jihadis (Which has been admitted by Pakistani PM Imran Khan) who are still thriving, surviving & getting nurtured in Pakistan. This combination is equal or rather a bigger threat to the world peace than Taliban booked in Isolation. Also all the current measures adopted by Pakistani Army & Pakistani Administration have not benefitted its general population who are desperate to get their basic needs of food shelter & clothing. Rather such measures have just filled the pockets of its corrupt political ministers and Army generals. So the combination has to be Taliban plus Pakistan on all these parameters as a package must be diffused and by this way we could very well say “Yes, the world will surely be a safer place to live in”.
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